Yesterday was primary day in six states, and victory in the latest battle in the Republican Party’s Civil War went to the Establishment, which mopped the floor with the Tea Party. The reason for this is pretty simple, and it is a lesson I learned the hard way over the years. Passion is no substitute for organization. Incumbents have better organization than challengers, and so, if the incumbent takes the challenger seriously, the odds are that the incumbent will win. If you want to predict an election, don’t look at just the polls or the TV ads. Find out how many volunteers a campaign has, how many field offices, how many paid staff. Having 70 percent support isn’t any good if your supporters don’t show up. Organization turns support into votes.
And so, here is a quick round up of what happened in yesterday’s primaries, in alphabetical order:
Arkansas: In the governor’s race, ex-congressman Asa Hutchinson easily defeated businessman Curtis Coleman, who received Ron Paul’s endorsement in an earlier campaign. Coleman is such damaged goods that Hutchinson never even mentioned his name during the campaign. Maybe it has something to do with Coleman comparing stem cell research to the Holocaust or making racist statements about the people of southeast Arkansas in previous elections.
Georgia: The Republican race for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Saxby Chambliss (yes, his Mama named him that) as a seven-way orgy of right-wing yahooism that will go to a run-off in July. Businessman David Perdue and Congressman Jack Kingston made it to the run-off by pulling about 30 percent of the vote each. Sarah-Palin-endorsed Karen Handel wound up third, which means she won’t be on the ballot in July. Another Tea Party also-ran was Congressman Paul Broun whom you may recall said evolution amounted to “lies from the pit of hell.”
Idaho: Congressman Mike Simpson, who is serving his eighth term in the House, faced a challenge from Idaho Falls attorney Bryan Smith. Smith had the backing of the Club for Growth (a Tea Party-friendly front organization), and he campaigned on the idea that Simpson was “too liberal” for Idaho. Simpson had the support of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (a front for corporate welfare queens). A week ago, the Club for Growth stopped its spending for Smith as the handwriting was on the wall by then. Simpson looks like he got around 2/3 of the vote.
Kentucky: The Tea Party’s wet dream was to bump off Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell with Matt Bevin. McConnell, after three decades in the Senate, is vulnerable to charges that he is too much a creature of Washington, and he has a 29 percent approval rating among Kentucky voters. However, you don’t get three decades in the Senate without knowing how to play politics in your home state. I don’t like McConnell’s ideology, but I am in awe of how much he knows about Kentucky politics — he knows who’s who in the dog catchers race in the hamlet of Horse Breath and has made at least three calls to the candidate he likes. McConnell has an organization built up over several terms in office, and he has favors owing across the Blue Grass State. And he spent like a drunken sailor — his win in the primary yesterday cost him more than his entire 2002 election cycle. In the end, he walked off with 60 percent of the vote despite being disliked by seven out of 10 Kentuckians.
Oregon: Here the race for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate had five candidates, but Dr. Monica Wehby (she’s a pediatric neurosurgeon and a single mother of four) seemed to lead pole-to-pole, with only state Rep. Jason Conger giving her any kind of competition. She had the backing and financial support of Senators Mitch McConnell, Kelly Ayotte, John McCain, Susan Collins and Saxby Chambliss. That was enough to steamroll the Tea Party.
Pennsylvania: The big news out of Pennsylvania was on the Democratic side where businessman Tom Wolf racked up more than 50 percent of the vote to take the gubernatorial nomination and where Hillary Clinton’s in-law Marjorie Margolies lost the nomination for a vacant House seat despite the Clinton clan’s backing.
On the Republican side, the Tea Party had hoped to take down Congressman Bill Shuster in the 9th Congressional District with Coast Guard Captain (ret.) Art Halvorson. A third candidate was Travis Schooley, a former Army intelligence analyst and business owner. Shuster outraised both with about $900,000 to their $100,000 or so. While his win isn’t impressive with just 53 percent, the 9th CD is a safe Republican seat. It sits on the border with Maryland leaning slightly to the western side of the state. When Jim Carville said that Pennsylvania on election day was Philadelphia at one end, Pittsburgh at the other with Alabama in the middle, the 9th CD was the heart of Alabama.
Jeff Myhre is a contributing journalist for TheBlot Magazine.
